Washington’s Fall Is About to Run Hot

Don't put away the sunscreen yet. If you're hoping September will finally bring some relief from summer heat, you should brace for disappointment. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its seasonal outlook this week, and most of the country — Washington included — is on track for a warmer-than-average fall between September and November.

The Pacific Northwest didn't just make the list. It's flagged as one of the regions most likely to see above-average temperatures all season.

Credit: NOAA

The Culprit Has a Name

A "super" El Niño is driving the forecast, with forecasters now putting the odds above 90% that it reaches the highest strength level on record — potentially the strongest since 1950. The pattern typically pushes warmer, drier conditions across the northern tier of the country, and this fall looks like a textbook example. El Niño is still gaining strength and isn't expected to peak until late fall or early winter, meaning the warming trend could intensify as the season goes on rather than fade.

Not every state is locked into the same outcome. Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia sit in what NOAA calls "equal chances" territory — essentially a coin flip between warm, cool, or average conditions. Washington doesn't get that uncertainty. The signal here points firmly toward heat.

What This Means for the Wenatchee Valley

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Warmer falls tend to mean a longer stretch of dry conditions too, which matters plenty for a region still shaking off wildfire smoke from earlier this summer. Orchard harvests, hiking season, and anyone hoping for an early snow tease in the Cascades should plan accordingly — this isn't shaping up to be the crisp, sweater-weather autumn some might be picturing.

Climate outlooks describe general patterns rather than day-to-day forecasts, so a cold snap here and there is still possible. But the broader trend for North Central Washington this fall points toward extra warmth, likely into November, with El Niño only expected to grow stronger as the season progresses.